Regularity of effects of climatic changes on quality indicators of surface water of the Dnister basin

Hryniuk, V. I.; Arkhypova, L. M.

Purpose. To substantiate the regularities of the influence of climate change on the quality indicators of surface waters of the Dniester basin taking into account the influence of waste water of the oil and gas enterprise. Methodology. The ecological assessment of the quality of surface waters affected by the discharge of waste water from the oil and gas enterprise of the Carpathian region was carried out by determining the integrated index of water objects quality potential. The statistical processing of the database of hydrochemical monitoring of surface water bodies of the Svicha river basin for the period of 2006 - 2015, databases of the meteorological data from the Dolyna meteorological station was conducted and followed by mathematical modeling and regression analysis using MatLab, TableCurve 2D programs. Findings. The analysis of the state of hydroecosystems where the waste water was discharged was carried out. A three-dimensional model of air temperature changes in the Dolyna district in Ivano-Frankivsk region during 2006 - 2015 was obtained. Correlation-regression dependence of qualitative indicators of surface water taking into account climatic changes was established. As a result of the conducted research the authors obtained the following results: the dependences found for the Precarpathian rivers of the upper Dniester basin prove the hypothesis: within the range of average annual temperatures of reservoirs (8 - 11 <^>oC) and their increase by 1 - 2 <^>oC during the last ten years with maintaining the trend in the future: global increase in the average annual air temperature leads to the intensification of the processes of self-cleaning of reservoirs. The indicator of biochemical oxygen consumption (BOD5) was increasing at this time. The conducted regression analysis proves that there is a certain correlation between the quality of water on the basis of BOD5 and the long-term changes in air temperature. The greater the pollution of the water object is, the more intense dependence gets. Originality. For the first time the functional regularities of the change of the complex index of the quality potential of water objects according to the change in the average monthly temperature of air on the basis of statistical analysis were obtained. For the first time a connection between a separate indicator of the water quality of a natural reservoir (on the example of BOD5) within the influence on the surface hydroecosystem of discharges of waste water from the oil and gas enterprise and the global increase of the temperature was found. Practical value. The results of the study can be used for determining the priority problems of surface water, for further prediction of the impact of climate change on the water quality of the rivers Turianka, Sadzhava, Lushchava, which are within the influence zone of the oil and gas industry enterprises, and will promote the development of scientifically proved measures to ensure the environmental safety of surface water and prevention of emergency ecological situations in the Carpathian region.


	Наукова періодика України		Naukovyi visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu